EuroCatalyst

EUROCATALYST 2004: Growth, integration and differentiation in European housing finance and fixed-income investment

Program outline:
DAY 3 Wednesday, 13 October 2004

(Click here for the outline for Day 1)
(Click here for the outline for Day 2)

DAY CHAIR / Alexandra Sleator, SVP, Coordinator for European Covered Bond Ratings, Moody's Investors Service
OPENING 0845-0900 [main ballroom]	SEATING AND OPENING COMMENTS

SESSION 1 0900-0945 [main ballroom]	BOARD ROOM – MARKETWATCH: RISK MANAGEMENT AND THE TRANSFER OF RISK - "Who is taking on the risk?" While the transfer of credit has improved the ability of banks to manage risk, the question remains as to where that risk has actually gone. It doesn't just disappear. The IMF's Global Financial Stability Report (April 2004) acknowledges that nonbank institutions, and in turn, households, have taken on much of the risk but asks whether the reallocation of credit risk has reduced risk for the overall financial system or merely shifted it to less transparent sectors. Are regulators able to keep up with the ever-changing commercial environment?
	PANEL	Matthew Sebag-Montefiore, Director, Mercer Oliver Wyman David Liu, Director, PMI Europe Alan Patterson, Managing Director, Citigroup Klaus C. Engelen, Contributing Editor, International Economy, and International Correspondent, Handelsblatt

SESSION 2 [main ballroom]	BOARD ROOM – SHAKEN, NOT STIRRED: COVERED BONDS WITH A TWIST 0945-1030 / PART 1: DEFINING AND DIFFERENTIATING COVERED BOND MARKETS: Don't Fence Me In This session builds upon prior sessions at EuroCatalyst 2002 and 2003 which anticipated convergence between structured finance and covered bonds and discussed the impact of that convergence on European mortgage markets. Today, "covered bonds" are used as a generalized term, when in fact the debate over what is (and what is not) a covered bond is becoming more heated. Narrowing the definition presents a classic dilemma for the sector's future development: should they be differentiated along national legislative frameworks at the expense of a pan European asset class or should they be standardized at the expense of markets with unequal volume that prevent a level playing field? The problem of definition will always arrive at the conclusion that sometimes what has been excluded from the definition is more important than what is included in it. The pressure to get it right is strong as prospects for growth are at stake. While the sector continues to evolve faster than definitions can be agreed upon, the practical question remains, "is there a need for definition or will marketing ultimately triumph?" This session provides substance behind the covered bond debate, discussing key features and concepts - with audience participation to determine whether or not consensus can be gained.
	PANEL	Heiko Langer, ABN Amro Hélène Heberlein, Senior Director, FitchRatings Torsten Althaus, Director, Standard & Poor's Gerald Dillenburg, Principal Advisor on capital adequacy, European Commission Thomas Herbert, Executive Director, European Head of Credit Research, Calyon
	1030-1045: MORNING REFRESHMENT BREAK
	1045-1100 PART 2: REPRESENTING THE MARKETS: FULL COVER One of the inevitable outcomes of the free movement of capital is the need for existing supervisory, representative or governing entities to reinvent themselves and/or redefine their goals in the wake of unprecedented change. This is a theme that EuroCatalyst has underscored since its inception in 2000, and specifically wrote about preceding its inaugural event in 2002. As we identify and interpret themes and patterns as they apply to the dynamic nature of European mortgage markets, we've found that nowhere is the effort to redefine and expand territory more clear than in the recent emergence of representative covered bond committees from different lobbies operating in the markets. In the beginning of May 2004, the European Securitisation Forum and the Bond Market Association announced the creation of a Covered Bonds Committee to work on market strategies for the covered bond market amid legislative changes and growing investor demand, drawing upon the collective global experience of its member base. Two months later the traditionally covered bond focused European Mortgage Federation announced the creation of its own Capital Markets and Covered Bond Council to "enhance the visibility of covered bonds at European and global level" that will be formally launched this November. Its website recently states a more broad focus that encompasses "information regarding recent developments in European mortgage markets, mortgage-backed securities, economic developments in mortgage lending, as well as legal and regulatory developments at European level." EuroCatalyst has invited a representative of the European Mortgage Federation Capital Markets and Covered Bond Council for a one-on-one with Toni Moss to discuss the drive for representation in the European covered bonds market.
		Dr. Louis Hagen, Executive Director, VDH, and Chairman, EMF Capital Markets and Covered Bond Council
	1100-1200 / PART 3 INVESTING IN AND MAKING THE MARKETS: SO MANY CHOICES, SO LITTLE TIME The development of European covered bond markets has historically been a uniquely collaborative endeavour between national market issuers, dealers and market-makers. The "closed club" that defined the covered bond community was characterized by internal consensus, sharing deals with multiple lead managers and mutual commitments to orderly market-making. As new national market frameworks began to proliferate, traditional issuers have provided both self-serving influence yet essential support in bringing new players into the fold to promote the overall development of the entire sector. Today, the explosive growth in covered bond frameworks combined with the revolutionary hybrid structured covered bonds launched by Bouwfonds and popularised by HBOS have dramatically altered the landscape of covered bonds, exposing the traditional limitations of the sector while proving their potential for unparalleled growth. The "internationalisation" of the sector along with the vast liquidity in fixed-income markets has in turn led to a mass increase in the new entrance - or re-entry - of dealers and market-makers to capture volume spreads. In a market characterised by thin spreads with little profit to share, we pose questions about the efficiency gains brought to the sector with the entry of the largest EuroMarket and global players and the new race to dominate League Table status. Will covered bond markets withstand the onslaught as a more unified sector? Will the commoditisation of the sector ultimately undermine its growth? And what could happen if the money moves elsewhere?
	HOST	Tim Skeet, Managing Director Origination, DCM, ABN Amro
	PANEL	Lars Dalitz, Portfolio Management Expert, responsible for covered bonds, European Central Bank Andreas Denger, Fixed Income, Euroland, Deutsche Asset Management Investmentgesellschaft mbH Torsten Strohrmann, Funds Manager, European Fixed Income, DWS Investment GmbH Ted Packmohr, Covered Bond Analyst, Dresdner Kleinwort Wasserstein Claudia Vortmueller, Structured Finance Research Analyst, Commerzbank


1200-1300: LUNCH
SESSION 3	REGIONAL MARKET SESSION: THE NETHERLANDS
1300-1400 [ballroom 1]	CO-HOSTS	Leo-Hendrik Greve, Managing Director, Citigroup Jeroen van Hessen, Managing Director, Mortgage Finance & Asset Securitisation, NIBCapital
	PANEL	Guus Schoorlemmer, Head of Structured Finance, AEGON Nederlands Lodewijk van der Heijden, Managing Director, De Hypotheekshop Peter Besuijen, Managing Director, Quion Bjorn Alink, In Charge of Funding, SNS Financial Markets Boudewijn Dierick, AVP Analyst, Moody's Investors Service Christian Moor, FitchRatings

SESSION 4a 1400-1500 [ballroom 2]	REGIONAL MARKET SESSION: ITALY Italy is the 6th largest mortgage market in Europe, more than tripling in growth of new mortgage origination over the past 8 years to more than €43,000 million in 2003. Despite this remarkable growth, the total stock of residential mortgage loans outstanding represents only 11.7% of the country's GDP vs. the EU average of 40%, showing even more potential to be tapped in the market. The geographic widening of market concentration from the North to the South; the lower than average EU interest rates at 4.2% combined with the untapped volume of household disposable income; the increase in distribution through traditional and online intermediaries; the presence of well-established and rated third-party servicers and the dramatic increase in the use of securitisation as a common funding tool have led national and foreign lenders to accelerate their activities in the Italian mortgage market. Italian RMBS issuance up to June of 2004 included 6 transactions totaling €4,924 million compared to 9 transactions in 2003 totalling €6,707 miillion, signalling what will become a banner year for Italian RMBS. Aside from the increase in RMBS volume, the importance of the Italian RMBS market lies in its innovative transactions. Consistent with consolidation throughout the Italian banking industry, a growing number of "multi-originator" transactions have emerged, in which underlying assets are originated by different lending institutions and merged under a single brand following their acquisition. "Multi-party" transactions have also emerged in which small and unrelated sellers team up to reach critical mass for an RMBS transaction. Several Italian transactions comprise mixed portfolios of residential and commercial mortgages and the securitisation of non-performing loans continues on the horizon. Toward the other end of the funding spectrum, Italian legislators are currently discussing amendments to the Italian securitization law to enable financial institutions to issue covered bonds. The amendment is expected to be passed before the end of 2004. Cassa Depositi e Prestiti SpA, which lends to local and regional governments, other public entities and private- or public-infrastructure concessionaires, is currently structuring an issuance of covered bonds that is anticipated to be launched later this year. This session features a cross-section of leading Italian market players to provide an updated overview of the competitive playing field and drivers of change in the Italian market, with emphasis placed on the expansion of funding alternatives and its overall impact on the Italian mortgage market value chain.
	HOST	Giuliano Giovannetti, Country Manager - Italy, PMI Europe
	PANEL	Bruno de Gasperis, CEO, Credit Circle, and Head of the Credit and International Department, ABI Lara Patrignani, director, FitchRatings Anna Tavano, Head of Italian Securitisation, Citigroup

SESSION 4b	REGIONAL MARKET SESSION: DENMARK AND SWEDEN
1400-1500	HOST	Alexandra Sleator, SVP, Coordinator for European Covered Bond Ratings, Moody's Investors Service
[ballroom 1]	PANEL	Fanny Borgström, Head of Group Funding, Nordea Torben Gjede, Director General, Realkreditrådet Lotte Bomgaard, Investor Relations Manager, Nykredit Per Tunestam, Deputy Treasurer, SBAB Bengt Edholm, Head of Finance, Stadshypotek Stig Tørnes-Hansen, Vice President and Head of Innovation, RealKredit Danmark Michael Zlotnik, Managing Director, Head of FI Europe, Financial Services Group, Standard & Poor's

1500-1515: AFTERNOON REFRESHMENT BREAK
SESSION 5a	REGIONAL MARKET SESSION: SPAIN
1515-1615	HOST	Juan Pablo Soriano, Director General, Moody's Investors Service España
[ballroom 2]	PANEL	Roberto Aleu, Head of Capital Markets, Confederación Española de Cajas de Ahorros CECA Fernando Cuesta, Head of Funding, Caja Madrid Angel Tello, Caixa Catalunya Santiago Ruiz Morales, Executive Director, Securitisation, Calyon Luis Sanchez Guerra, Ahorro Corporación Financiera Gustavo Celi, Associate Director, RMBS, FitchRatings

SESSION 5b	REGIONAL MARKET SESSION: CENTRAL AND EASTERN EUROPE AND EMERGING MARKETS (POLAND, HUNGARY, CZECH REPUBLIC)
1515-1615 [ballroom 1]	CO-HOSTS	Pam Hedstrom, Senior Vice President, Securitisation Services, Stewart International Barbara Hewson, Managing Director and Principal, NewLine Capital Partners LLC
	PANEL	Dr. Astrid Kratschmann, Chief of Department, Central European Housing Finance, Erste Bank Achim Duebel, economist Yaron Ernst, Senior Credit Officer, Moody's Investors Service Erik Urskov, Executive Vice President, Nykredit

SESSION 6 1615-1700 [main ballroom]	BOARD ROOM – CATERING TO DEMAND: DEVELOPING THE GLOBAL INVESTOR BASE FOR EUROPEAN COVERED BONDS AND RMBS This session features leading investors from respective global investor bases to educate and inform issuers of covered bonds and MBS on the dynamics of tapping the global investor bases. In particular, investors describe what they look for in new issues, to what extent frameworks matter over liquidity and credit quality and how issuers can differentiate themselves among the widening investor base.
	PANEL	Richard Curtis, Director Fund Investment Advisory, Via Capital Ted Lord, Barclays Toni Moss, EuroCatalyst BV Isao Kubota, Lone Star Acquisition Japan (TO BE CONFIRMED) Marcus Guddat, Director, Fixed Income Syndicate, Citigroup

		© 2004 EuroCatalyst BV